Tom DeRose, - Coldwell Banker Miller-Arnason

The data displayed in the table show home sales for the last 6 months in a part of Bellingham along Chuckanut Drive. These 6 homes are all of the homes that sold in this area of town for between $300,000 and $600,000.

What is particularly striking is that many of these homes sold for from $100,000 to $200,000 less than their original list price. Also, most of the homes were on the market for a half year to more than 2 years. These drastic reductions in price, and the length of time it takes to sell a home, is common with higher priced homes ($500,000 and above) in Whatcom County. This segment of the market has been particularly hard hit in the past 2 years.

It should be pointed out that in nearly all of these home sales, the list price was gradually reduced until it was at or near a fair market price. In general, buyers didn't make offers that were $100,000 less than current list price.

Original list price	Sale price	Days on market
$449,000	$350,000	330
$599,000	$355,000	200+
$595,000	$390,000	145
$520,000	$432,000	726
$464,000	$390,000	153
$539,000	$500,000	50

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Home Buyers in Whatcom County--Who Are They

Posted on July 21, 2010

Here's a brief analysis of people buying homes and selling homes in Whatcom County in the first 6 months of 2010. The data shows the percentages of buyers and selles who bought or sold to move into a larger home, move into a smaller home, for investment, etc.

First-time home buyers	20%
Selling and moving up to a larger home	10%
"Empty nesters"-- selling a larger home in which they raised their family and buying a smaller home	10%
Relocating into or out of the area	10%
Buying for investment	10%

The remaining 40% of buyers and sellers are doing so for various other reasons. The large number of first time home buyers is likely due to the first time buyers tax credit that in April. Many homes were purchased in the last few weeks of April so buyers could take advantage of this $8000 credit.

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Buying or Selling a Condo in Bellingham

Posted on June 19, 2010

This is a great time to buy a condo in Bellingham. If you have to sell a condo in Bellingham, brace yourself.

The graph below shows the list price and the sale price of all condos for sale in Bellingham in the past 14 months. Notice that in most months, the sale price is considerably below the list price. There are some months when the sale price is above the list price. That's because the data includes all condos for sale, and all condos sold. If expensive condos sell, and there have been a number of million dollar sales, the data reflect those high-end sales.

Notice also that the list price of condos continues to go down: from a median price of around $250,000 14 months ago, to a median list price of around $220,000 last month. That's about a 12% reduction in price--consistent with the decrease we have experienced in all home sales in Bellingham.

But the situation is even worse than this graph indicates. The list prices used to create this graph are actually the last list price before the condo sold. Many condos go through a series of price reductions until they get to a price at which they get offers. For example, a condo that recently sold was listed for 880 days, the original list price was $950,000, and it sold for $660,000. Not all condos are reduced this drastically before they sell, but many are.

If you want to buy a condo, step up. If you are selling, brace yourself.

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Bellingham Home Sales in May (compared to April)

Posted on June 15, 2010

Months of Supply	Sale Price/List Price Ratio	Pending/New Listings Ratio	Median Sale Price	Average Days on Market
8.7 months	92%	76%	$280,000	95
6.9 months	91%	42%	$270,000	104

April

May

The data in this table show home sales in Bellingham for April and May. They show a mixed bag of how the market is doing.

Months of supply has decreased from April to May. That's good. Months of supply is the number of months it would take to sell everything currently on the market. The fewer the months of inventory, the better.
Sale price as a percentage of list price is virtually unchanged at 91%
The number of pendings as a percentage of new listings has decreased. This is bad. More homes were pended (mutual acceptance of terms of sale between buyer and seller) comared to new listings in April than in May. This could be due to the face that more homes were put on the market in May than in April.
Median sale price has gone down $10,000 in one month. The decrease is most likely due to the sale of less expensive homes, and an overall decrease in home values.
Homes are on the market an average of 104 days compared to 95 days one month ago. It takes 9 days longer on average to sell a home.

So, a mixed bag. But most of the data indicate that the market was worse in May than it was in April.

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Risks and Positive Factors Associated with Recovery of the Local Real Estate Market

Posted on June 10, 2010

The risks associated with the real estate market recovering are:

Expiration of homebuyer tax credits--lower priced homes sold vogorously in the weeks before the tax credit ended, and then markedly slowed since then
Mortgage rates rising by year end--there is some speculation and concern that interest rates will go up if we experience inflation
Increasing delinquencies and foreclosures--short sales and foreclosures continue, this drives all prices down, and pushes home buyers out of the homeowner market
Continued slowdown of internal migration in the U.S. due in part to underwater homeowners
Potential for weak macroeconomic recovery

Positive factors that suggst the real estate market will recover are:

Local employment growth is coming--the state gained jobs in January and March
Washington state recovery is expected to outpace national recovery (Arun Raha, Washington state economist)
The Canadian dollar is strong--Our border is with Canada, not Greece
Locational advantages of the region: Water and mountain views, Recreational amenities, Lower-cost alternative to Vancouver & Seattle

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Home Sales Are Improving

Posted on June 9, 2010

In the graph below, you can see how home sales in Whatcom County have rebounded from last year, and are aproaching what they were in 2008. While 2008 was a very sluggish year for home sales, it was better than last year. So this rebound, while not wonderful news, is certainly good news.